Pepper McSausage Picks

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  • Pepper’s Pick 12/13/25

    A pick a day until my mom comes back to life.

    No feelings/thoughts today, just revenge.

    Today’s Pick: OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER -11 (-110) AND SAN ANTOINIO SPURS MONEYLINE (+390)

    So here’s how you gotta math it out. You put 1 unit down on the Spurs moneyline to win 3.9 units (@ +390). And then you put 2.2 units down on the Thunder to cover -11 (@ -110) to win 2 units. If the Thunder cover, you win a unit between the two bets. If the Spurs win, you win 1.7 units. If the Thunder win and Spurs cover, you lose it all, but that’s not happening. The line tells you the Thunder are going to dominate tonight, but that’s not how you’re going to find joy in betting Wemby’s return (and manifesting Keldon Johnson buying a llama). This game presents a wonderful opportunity to emotionally hedge while making the smart bet here.

    Good luck everyone and I’ll see y’all on the other side!

    Pick record: 21-23 (no thank you Pascal)

  • Pepper’s Pick 12/12/25

    A pick a day until my mom comes back to life.

    And we’re back under .500 again! But congrats to us on what will amount to be a victory today. And back and forth we go. An incredible ping pong rally between me and the gambling gods, my mom’s soul on the line. What can go wrong?

    Today’s Pick: PASCAL SIAKAM OVER 7.5 REBOUNDS

    Taking this man’s over in rebounds scares the s*** outta me. I’m not gonna lie to you. Hell, last year, my favorite bet was betting his rebounds under. Which is still probably a generally profitable betting strategy this season too; he’s grown wildly unpredictable on the glass since coming to Indiana. With that said, today’s matchup @ Philly couldn’t be a more advantageous spot for him. Philly allows 56+ rebounds at home. Right around top 5 worst marks in the league and specifically, are the third worst at allowing rebounds to the power forward position. In a position-less NBA world, these stats can be a little misleading (and often a nice resource for cherry-picking), but certain players are more defined to a spot than others and Siakam fits that bill here.

    Good luck everyone and I’ll see y’all on the other side!

    Pick record: 21-22 (no thank you Emeka)

  • Pepper’s Pick 12/11/25

    A pick a day until my mom comes back to life.

    I had a f***** up dream last night where this worked, it finally worked. I was so proud of my Keldon Johnson play yesterday… and that pride couldn’t help but seep into my subconscious where it was then weaponized against me in my dream state. I woke up so excited and so hopeful cuz my mom came back! The process had worked! She was right there in my dreams, a joyful reunion, and I couldn’t wait for the next day to tell y’all all about it here. Instead I woke up to realize it was all a false reality and my mom is still dead. Heartbreaking… and just like that I’m bludgeoned upside the head with the feelings of grief all over again. Whatever dude, can’t stray from the objective now. Gotta keep getting shots up.

    Today’s Pick: EMEKA EGBUKA 1+ TOUCHDOWN (+170)

    Dude hasn’t scored a touchdown in over a month and only one in the last 8 games (he also dropped a touchdown last week, womp womp). Well, my friend, the cavalry has arrived! The Bucs’ weapons are now fully healthy, something Egbuka (and perhaps to a greater extent, Baker Mayfield) took full advantage of early in the season when he started on a TD tear! It might be too early in his career for Egbuka to be a true #1 option regardless of what’s around him, but when the tide starts lifting boats, Egbuka’s boat seems to lift the highest. Especially when he scored 2 touchdowns on the Falcons week 1. Not to mention, 76% of the Falcons touchdown passes allowed have gone to wideouts (100% in the last month, since the Falcons playoff chances started cratering).

    Good luck and I’ll see y’all on the other side!

    Pick record: 21-21 (thank you Keldon!)

  • Pepper’s Pick 12/10/25

    A pick a day until my mom comes back to life.

    I’m back under .500 and finding myself closer to joining my mom in the cloud suite by the day. The Heat got off to an 18-2 start (2 points short). Only for the Magic to storm back and kneecap the Heat in the second half. But that’s the pitfalls of gambling I suppose…

    Gambling is one of the few things that ever brought my mom overt joy, but I never got to experience that with her because she always went when I was too young to go with her, and by the time I grew up, she was too poor to go. And by the time I had any sort of money to burn, she was full hermit mode and didn’t want to leave the house. She loved the slots. I never understood the appeal, but I found a fiancé that carries my mom’s slot torch and swears by its value. I wish my fiancé got more time with my mom, but it’s probably for the best that my mom passed before our wedding because she wasn’t going to go (despite my fiancé’s hopefulness) and I think it would’ve just further crushed my mom’s spirit. Another example of how one’s mind can be their own prison. I’ve had my heartbroken many times hoping my mom was going to come to events in support of me (baseball games/school plays) that she ultimately bailed on, and I didn’t have the expectation that she was going to go to my wedding or anything, but it’s hard conveying to people that I have a perfectly good relationship with my mom and then try to explain to them why it was okay that my mom wouldn’t be there. This dumbfounded people, but I had found my peace in it. I think it would’ve hit harder for me closer to my wedding day though cuz weddings feel like the one thing you’re supposed to show up for as a parent regardless of situation. It just means more than any performance. It’s all a moot point now, but I think I’m going to start compartmentalizing that she would’ve been there because as many people have said, “how can she not be?”. And that’s probably a better way of framing it for self-preservation since ultimately we won’t ever know.

    Today’s Pick: KELDON JOHNSON 12+ POINTS

    Despite all their talented guards, it’s the Spurs dearth of wings that will create the biggest opportunity against the Lakers. The Lakers are one of the worst teams in the league at allowing points to the 3 & 4 spots on the court, and Keldon’s interchangeable there. He’ll also get first crack at taking advantage of the Lakers bench, which has been a sore spot for them all season. A fantasy opportunity all around to bet on the Spurs’ spark plug.

    Good luck everyone and I’ll see y’all on the other side!

    Pick record: 20-21 (no thank you Heat/Magic)

  • Pepper’s Pick 12/9/25

    A pick a day until my mom comes back to life.

    I got 20-20 vision now baby! It’s actually pretty impressive how I’ve managed to stay perfectly average since I’ve started making these picks.

    My mom, grandma and other angels watching me make s*** picks knowing they’ll get me back to .500

    I’d personally love to keep the momentum going and start to became a better, more consistent handicapper now that I’ve taken my heart out of the picks lol. At the very least, it would be nice getting back over .500 for the first time in what feels like forever.

    Today’s Pick: MIA/ORL LARGEST LEAD: OVER 17.5 POINTS (+100)

    I’ve been staring at this line placement, and the Heat/Magic schedules, for like an hour now and I honestly have no idea what to make of it. To the point that it has hindered my creative flow and essentially gave me writer’s block (hence today’s short preface). The Heat and Magic’s games generally haven’t gone over this number recently—especially when they haven’t been playing the Clippers. Magic games haven’t hit this in their last 5. And Heat games have only hit this 5 times in their last 18 games. And specifically, when the Magic & Heat have played each other this season, they’ve been in pretty tight games (not really sniffing 17.5 either). I’m not sure what I’m missing here. This number is far too high (which as we know, means they’re baiting people into taking the under). With a healthy Paolo (derogatory)… a missing Franz… a potential Herro… this game is shaping up to be a roller coaster ride, and we just need one big run at any point in the game to clutch this prop.

    Good luck everyone and I’ll see y’all on the other side!

    Pick record: 20-20 (thank you Phoenix!)

  • Pepper’s Pick 12/8/25

    A pick a day until my mom comes back to life.

    Been staring at a blank page for like a half an hour now, not sure why, but I don’t have much to say today. I can brag about my Packers pick yesterday, but god knows my luck is more likely to turn negative today than be able to back up any sort of arrogance. I can conjure up memories of my mom, but my brain is empty on those right now (good and bad). The pitfalls of not having any tangible experiences with my mother. All my memories are tied to passive activities that brought me comfort (a la movie nights or family dinners) or inciting incidents that are tied to trauma (massive fights or long absences. I wish I was able to experience more joy with my mom. Or rather, I wish I got to see my mom experience joy. Being able to see joy in (through?) her eyes would make me feel a lot better now. It breaks my heart knowing I got to see a broad range of emotion from her, but never much on the positive end of the spectrum. Especially not in recent years. By the time I reached any age where I could do something about that, she lost the desire to do much of anything. And I spent my life trying to support her and what made her feel comfortable as opposed to trying to pressure her in getting healthier or physically bettering herself. I tend to procrastinate a lot in life and my mom proved that you can procrastinate to a point that it’s too late…

    Today’s Pick: PHOENIX SUNS 1ST HALF +5 (@ MIN)

    For whatever reason, the Timberwolves have been great at closing games, but tend to play with their food early. Especially recently. In their last 7 games as favorites, they’re 1-6 against the spread in the first half, even losing the first half outright 5 TIMES!! Pretty incredible stuff considering they’re averaging being 8+ point favorites in that stretch. The Suns will be without Booker, but the Timberwolves have shown that opponent health hasn’t mattered anyway; they’re willing to play down to whoever. Look out for the opportunity to live bet the Timberwolves though if they get out to a good deficit, as I mentioned, they’ve been great at closing games! So you might get an opportunity to capitalize on a 2 for 1 deal here 🫡

    Good luck and, as always, I’ll see y’all on the other side!

    Pick record: 19-20 (thank you Pack)

  • Pepper’s Pick 12/7/25

    A pick a day until my mom comes back to life.

    Y’all… I lied to you. I said I wasn’t going to pick with my heart again and what you didn’t know, is that I have future for Pelicans wins total over 30.5. Now that bet, admittedly, looks like s***, but in order to hold onto any hope that the bet might hit, I let that bias creep into plays that it doesn’t belong. I should be squarely placing Pelicans bets from my closet while I shamefully cry into a sweater I haven’t worn in 3 years, not making it my play of the day! Please forgive me.

    Today’s Pick: PACKERS -6.5 (vs CHI)

    Da Bears are still getting no respect. And after the last couple months that they’ve had, this one feels pointed. Vegas is telling you that their magician/competency shtick ends today!

    Good luck everyone and I’ll see y’all on the other side.

    Pick record: 18-20 (no thank you Pels)

  • Pepper’s Pick 12/6/25

    A pick a day until my mom comes back to life.

    I’ve started watching The Pitt and holy hell, I’ve never had a show give me so much anxiety.

    The writing and the characters are so good, but as some level of hypochondriac (thank you mom), I don’t think the show is meant for people like me. I literally feel a pit in my stomach while I watch that’s just waiting to have some sort of negative association created for it. My mom was always generally an anxious person (she took anti-anxiety meds since forever and to the point that like, how do you know if you even still need them or that you’ve just become mentally reliant on them? Like are anti-anxiety meds supposed to be temporary or when you get on them you accept you’re gonna have to be on them forever. I don’t understand how you’re supposed to unpack that and become secure being off them. But anyway, I digress). My mom was always anxious, especially about her health, but I didn’t start to truly understand that anxiety until I also started becoming anxious about my health. It’s truly one of the things I hate most about myself. I wish I could be blissfully unaware or, rather, not take any slight discomfort physically to be the end of days. The internet does not help, and nor does The Pitt, but I’m far too enthralled in the show to quit now!

    Today’s Pick: PELICANS +3.5 (@ BRK)

    The Pelicans simply need this game far more than Brooklyn. If they’re going to find wins anywhere, it might as well be here. Without a first rounder, they can’t just disappear into nothing, they gotta be relatively competitive. And with that, they kinda have. They’re 1-9 in their last 10 games, but in that same span, they’re 8-2 against the spread. And the Nets haven’t been a favorite all season, and while that gives me pause (cuz why are they here?), I feel like they have this betting line for people like me to overthink and blindly roll with the Nets. And I’ll do no such thing here!

    Good luck everyone and I’ll see y’all on the other side!

    Pick record: 18-19 (thank you Celts)

  • Pepper’s Pick 12/5/25

    A pick a day until my mom comes back to life.

    Alright. No more Mr. Nice Guy. Went with my heart last night and, predictably, got shafted for it. It’s time to go on a run; I’m through playing around. My mom’s not chilling in the cloud suite to watch her son throw s*** against the wall.

    Today’s Pick: CELTICS -8

    No Bron. No Luka. All the action? Yeah, okay. Austin Reaves is awesome as a number 1 option, don’t get me wrong, but off a back-to-back thriller? He’s due for regression and I don’t trust any of the Lakers tonight to make up for his playmaking duties. The Celts are also coming off a B2B, but they handled business last night and were able to comfortably handle business and didn’t need to give their dudes a full workload. With all that said, the spread still feeling outrageously high? It should. It should feel gross to lock in the Celtics here.

    Good luck and, as always, I’ll see you on the other side!

    Pick record: 17-19 (no thank you boyz)

  • Pepper’s Pick 12/4/25

    A pick a day until my mom comes back to life.

    My brother unlocked a wonderful part of our childhood for me last night. He reminded me how frequently we’d stay at various hotels growing up because of all the fights my mom would have with her men. Thinking back, I can’t quite pinpoint if we got kicked out by her men or my mom wielded the power by taking us and leaving. Most likely a combination of both. It’s weird thinking back on cuz I have no doubt that these were probably very emotional moments for my mom as she felt like her life was falling apart, but for me specifically, these are some very fond memories. After the adrenaline and emotional anguish wore off, it was just my mom, my brother and I on a bed, enjoying whatever was on cable. I’m not sure we ever actually had her full attention cuz she was probably going through it mentally, but in my mind, we finally did. My mom always had trouble sitting still and being present, but in these moments, she had to. She had nowhere else to go. It was an emotionally-charged, forced movie night, but a movie night with the family nevertheless.

    Today’s Pick: DALLAS COWBOYS +3 (@ DET)

    After last night’s L, there is no doubt that I’m compounding an L with another L, but I will ride the Cowboys ship into the ground if I must. All logic suggests today’s game picks should be Lions and the under, but after feeling what I’ve felt last night into today, I’m riding on my comfort team and no team has brought me more joy this season gambling than the Cowboys. And while it’s not a good move to bet with your heart (especially when the public’s heart is also riding on it), I’m betting on the idea that my heart can sustain me at least one more week of blind bliss.

    Good luck everyone and I will see y’all on the other side!

    Pick record: 17-18 (no thank you Harden)